It all comes down to this - for the fourth year in a row. Do I have any idea what's going to happen? Nope! But let's it through ...
(2) Wisconsin vs. (1) Ohio State
Sunday at 4:00 PM Eastern
There are some serious conversation that have to be had about how two teams existing on a plane upon themselves is not good for the health and future of NCAA women's ice hockey. We'll talk about it on the PodKaz next week and going forward.
That being said, I'm not going to say it's unfair that these players are facing off for the fourth year running. Absolute kudos to both teams' senior classes, who have played for a title in each of their seasons at their respective universities. It's an epic and impressive run.
Larger issues aside, we all win when these two teams face off because it's going to be an absolutely spectacular game. The atmosphere at last year's Frozen Four was electric. I give that game a slight edge because it was the title game, but Friday's semifinal with UW and PSU was darn close. I'm hoping that the folks of State College still show up for this one because they made that game great.
The Buckeyes and Badgers have split their national championship series 2-1 to this point, with Wisconsin winning 1-0 in 2023 on a goal from Kirsten Simms, Ohio State winning 1-0 in 2024 on a goal from Joy Dunne and Simms scoring on a penalty shot with 18.9 on the clock to force overtime and then in the extra frame to win it all for Wisconsin in 2025.
The two teams have played 21 times over the past four seasons. Each team has won 10 games and one game ended in a 3-3 tie. This year, the Badgers won three of four games against OSU during the regular season. However Buckeyes looked like a far superior team in the WCHA conference tournament championship game a few weeks back. The 2-1 score does not give an accurate accounting of how Ohio State dominated the game and had Wisconsin on their heels and looking like they had no idea how to handle it.
The biggest concern coming out of that game was how unprepared for it UW seemed when OSU didn't do anything different than they've always done. The Badgers have a tendency to glitch a little when they can't play their preferred way and it can take them far too long to adjust and regroup. There will be no time for that today. The game will be out of reach before they find their way back.
I've been saying for a few weeks that the team most likely to beat Wisconsin in any of their games right now is Wisconsin. That's not a knock on any of the opponents, but commentary on UW's tendency of late to not show up at full capacity for their games. While they definitely course corrected over their last few games and the grandeur of this game should be enough to make that happen, it's also telling to me that Ohio State hasn't had that problem. They show up with their A-game at all times.
Both teams will need their goalies to be on point. Ava McNaughton had a slow start on Friday, but recovered to make some jaw-dropping, game-saving saves later in the game. Hailey MacLeod has been as steady and reliable as can be for Ohio State. She was far less tested on Friday, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any effects on either of them in terms of what they went through two days ago.
OSU had five different goal scorers in their win over Northeastern, including two defenders. Their roster doesn't have the same internationally-famous cache as Wisconsin's does, but it's no less effective. This is going to be a scrappy, gritty and hard-fought game. Being able to rely on the full line sheet to light the lamp is going to be key.
I think if we see scoring from the third or fouth line of either of these teams as this game progresses, that's a good indicator of which team is most likely to go on to win.
Neither team is going to get to play the exact game they'd like. The team that adapts, that pushes back best and who can stay focused will come out on top.
Last year's game is remembered for the penalty shot, but OSU coach Nadine Muzerall said on Saturday that she has spent a lot of time focusing on the mental mistake of the too many skaters penalty that proceeded that play and put her team on its heels in the final two minutes of regulation. A lot of Sunday's title game will be decided on how each team handles it mentally and Muzerall wants to ensure that there are no mental mistakes like that this time around.
I don't think it's too hyperbolic to compare this matchup to USA and Canada in women's hockey. They are two spectacular teams that know each other well. There are no secrets. They know the others' systems and approach. They know the individual players. It's basically impossible to know which team will win on any given days. As I noted before, over 21 games in four seasons, they are 10-10-1
This is a lot of words for me to tell you I have no idea who's going to win. It's a toss up and something as dumb as a oddly bouncing puck is as likely to decide this one as anything. Based on the last few weeks, Ohio State has been more consistent. Knowing that they'll hit the ice and be on Wisconsin from puck drop with no questions or hesitation gives them a slight edge in my mind.
But it wouldn't be fun if it were a foregone conclusion, so you'd better just plan to be in front of your tv at 4 PM Eastern and buckle in for some of the best women's hockey you'll see this year (and yes, I'm saying that unironically a month after the Olympics ended).
